After years of lockdowns and a seismic shift toward at-home streaming, the movie industry faced an existential question: could the theatrical experience survive?
The answer, as of 2021, has been a resounding yes, but with a clear new playbook. The films that have reached the coveted $1 billion global box office milestone aren’t just big-budget spectacles; they are cultural events that speak directly to the desires of a changed audience. By analyzing the box office patterns of these post-COVID hits and comparing them to their pre-pandemic counterparts, a new set of rules for blockbuster success emerges.
The Post-COVID Billion-Dollar Club
Since 2021, only a select group of films has managed to surpass the $1 billion mark. Their success isn’t just about massive budgets; it’s about connecting with audiences on a deep, almost primal level.
Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) – $2.32 billion
A true cinematic event, James Cameron’s sequel grossed $2.32 billion worldwide, with a remarkable 70.5% ($1.64 billion) coming from international markets. Its success was driven by a visual spectacle that demanded to be seen on the biggest screen possible, a feat that no streaming service could replicate.
Ne Zha II (2025) – $2.15 billion
This Chinese animated film is a testament to the power of the international market. With a worldwide gross of $2.15 billion, it’s the highest-grossing non-English film of all time, with a staggering 87.4% ($1.88 billion) of its revenue from international markets, primarily China. It shows that culturally specific films can be massive global hits without relying on the U.S. market.
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) – $1.92 billion
This film was a masterclass in fan service and nostalgia, bringing together three generations of Spider-Man. It grossed $1.92 billion worldwide ($814.8 million domestic, $1.11 billion international), a potent blend of domestic enthusiasm and global franchise recognition.
Inside Out 2 (2024) – $1.7 billion
The animated sequel connected with audiences by exploring the relatable anxieties of growing up. It grossed $1.7 billion worldwide ($653 million domestic, $1.05 billion international), proving that heartfelt, high-concept animation is a reliable crowd-pleaser for families and adults alike.
Top Gun: Maverick (2022) – $1.5 billion
The legacy sequel’s $1.5 billion worldwide haul ($718.7 million domestic, $777 million international) was fueled by stunning practical effects and a sense of event filmmaking that felt like a throwback to an earlier era. Tom Cruise’s commitment to a theatrical-only release paid off spectacularly.
Barbie (2023) – $1.45 billion
A cultural phenomenon, this film grossed $1.45 billion worldwide ($636.2 million domestic, $810.8 million international). It proved that a film for and about women could become a global blockbuster, tapping into a demographic that has historically been underserved by big-budget cinema.
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (2023) – $1.36 billion
Finally breaking the video game curse, this film’s family-friendly adventure grossed $1.36 billion worldwide ($574.9 million domestic, $785.9 million international). Its success shows that a well-executed adaptation of a beloved IP can become an industry-shaking hit.
Deadpool & Wolverine (2024) – $1.34 billion
The first R-rated film to cross the mark, it capitalized on the excitement of the multiverse and the chemistry between its two lead actors. It grossed $1.34 billion worldwide ($636.7 million domestic, $701.3 million international), proving that a more adult-oriented, niche-but-beloved genre can still be a global powerhouse.
Moana 2 (2024) – $1.06 billion
Originally conceived for streaming, this Disney sequel’s upgrade to a theatrical release paid off with a $1.06 billion worldwide gross ($460.4 million domestic, $598.8 million international). It reinforced the enduring appeal of Disney’s animated musicals and their ability to draw families to theaters.
Lilo & Stitch (2025) – $1.03 billion
The live-action remake of the 2002 film tapped into a deep well of nostalgia, grossing $1.03 billion worldwide ($421.7 million domestic, $606.7 million international). Its success, along with Moana 2, confirms that Disney’s strategy of remaking animated classics for new generations remains incredibly potent.
Jurassic World: Dominion (2022) – $1 billion
While critically panned, the reunion of the original Jurassic Park cast was enough to push it to a $1 billion worldwide gross ($376.8 million domestic, $625.1 million international). Its success, despite poor reviews, underscores the sheer power of franchise loyalty and a cast reunion.
The Pre-COVID Blueprint: A Different Era
Before the pandemic, the billion-dollar club had a different feel. The list was dominated by superhero films, animated giants, and James Cameron’s epics. Films like Avengers: Endgame ($2.8 billion), Avatar ($2.9 billion), and Titanic ($2.2 billion) stood at the top. The pattern was clear: mega-franchises and visual innovators reigned supreme.
- Dominance of the MCU: Pre-COVID, a significant portion of the billion-dollar list was made up of Marvel films like Avengers: Infinity War ($2.05 billion), The Avengers ($1.52 billion), and Black Panther ($1.35 billion). These films were the backbone of the blockbuster economy.
- Established Franchises: Outside of the MCU, a few other established franchises were guaranteed hits, including Jurassic World ($1.67 billion) and live-action remakes like The Lion King ($1.66 billion) and Beauty and the Beast ($1.26 billion).
- Animation as a Sure Thing: Pixar, Disney Animation, and Illumination had a consistent track record of hits, with Frozen II ($1.45 billion) and Incredibles 2 ($1.24 billion) leading the charge.
The pre-COVID model was based on the simple formula of strong IP + massive scale = success. Studios could release an MCU movie, and it was a virtual certainty it would be a hit. The market was so predictable that risk-taking felt less necessary.
Similarities and Differences: The New Rules of Engagement
While both eras relied heavily on sequels and franchises, the post-COVID landscape has introduced crucial new variables.
- Increased Reliance on International Box Office: While international markets were always important, they are now more vital than ever. For films like Ne Zha II and Avatar: The Way of Water, international sales accounted for an overwhelming majority of their revenue, offsetting the more challenging and costly domestic market. This means studios must focus on global marketing and storytelling with a broader, more universal appeal.
- The Rise of the “Niche” Blockbuster: The pre-COVID era was dominated by a few major genres. Now, films like Barbie have proven that a “niche” audience (aka 50% of the world), when given a tentpole-level budget and a smart, compelling story, can become the main event. Studios are now incentivized to seek out these untapped audiences and offer them a premium cinematic experience.
- Event vs. Routine: The routine blockbuster is dead. With streaming options so plentiful and affordable, audiences won’t leave home for just any big-budget film. The post-COVID billion-dollar movies all offered something more—a cultural phenomenon (Barbie), a nostalgic reunion (Spider-Man: No Way Home), or a visual spectacle that’s best seen in a theater (Avatar 2). The films had to be an “event,” something people felt they had to see on opening weekend to be part of the conversation.
- Streaming’s Complicated Role: The success of films like Moana 2 and Lilo & Stitch suggests that streaming and theatrical releases can coexist and even boost each other. While many films went to streaming first during the lockdowns, these new hits demonstrate that a theatrical release, particularly for beloved family IPs, can create momentum that streaming services then capitalize on. It’s a symbiotic relationship, not a zero-sum game.
The Streaming Paradox: When the Couch Rivals the Theater
The relationship between streaming and theatrical releases is more complex than a simple rivalry. While streaming’s rise has made staying home an increasingly appealing option, it has also created a new kind of blockbuster consumer. The people who are most likely to go to the movies are often the same people who are most invested in streaming services. They are the cinephiles, the franchise devotees, the ones who crave a constant flow of content. This symbiotic relationship means that a film’s success isn’t just about its opening weekend anymore. A strong theatrical run creates buzz and anticipation for its eventual streaming debut, turning the film into a long-term asset for the studio.
This new dynamic is a major reason why Disney pulled Moana 2 from a planned Disney+ release and opted for a theatrical debut. It was a clear statement: this is a big, important property, and it deserves the big screen. The resulting billion-dollar gross proved them right. The future isn’t about one format winning; it’s about studios intelligently leveraging both to maximize a film’s cultural and financial footprint. The theater provides the spectacle and the event, while streaming provides the long-tail revenue and continued audience engagement. In this new world, the biggest hits are the ones that serve as an exciting bridge between the two.
The Art of the Comeback: Reinventing the Blockbuster
The movie industry’s post-COVID survival isn’t just a fluke; it’s a direct result of a fundamental shift in strategy. The era of a dozen different superhero movies a year, each a predictable cog in a larger machine, is over. The “cinematic universe” model, which once seemed infallible, is showing cracks. Why? Because the audience’s willingness to invest in every single entry has diminished. They now require something more: a reason to prioritize one film over the countless others available at their fingertips.
The successful blockbusters of the past few years didn’t just have big budgets and famous faces; they had a clear, compelling hook. Spider-Man: No Way Home was an unprecedented cinematic event, a true reunion of generations. Barbie was a cultural touchstone that ignited conversations far beyond the theater lobby. These movies transcended their genre and became “can’t-miss” pop culture moments. The new path to a billion dollars is no longer about simply being a sequel, but about being the sequel that every fan has dreamed of. Studios are now forced to ask: what is the single, unique element that will make this film an event?
The path to a billion dollars is no longer a straight line for most movies. While big franchises remain a safe bet, the new golden rule is to give audiences a compelling reason to leave the comfort of their homes. This could mean a spectacle that can’t be replicated, a deeply personal story told on a grand scale, or a cultural moment that extends far beyond the film itself. The post-COVID box office isn’t just a recovery—it’s a revolution.
