The 2026 awards season is officially in high gear, and if there is one name on everyone’s lips, it’s Jessie Buckley. Her performance in Hamnet has been an absolute juggernaut, sweeping the major precursors and proving that she is the undisputed frontrunner for the Oscar. But while the Best Actress race feels like a coronation, the rest of the categories are proving to be a thrilling, unpredictable ride through the “Road to the Oscars.”
From Timothée Chalamet’s “punk rock” turn in Marty Supreme to massive BAFTA upsets like Robert Aramayo’s shock win, the leaderboard is shifting daily. Here is where the 2026 Oscar acting race stands after a historic night in London.
The Queen of the Season: Jessie Buckley’s Dominance
It is rare to see such a consensus so early, but Jessie Buckley has managed to unite the Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, and the BAFTAs. In Hamnet, she portrays Agnes Hathaway with a haunting, ethereal grace that has left both critics and fans breathless.
Historically, sweeping these three major precursors almost guarantees an Oscar win. However, the industry is keeping a close eye on the upcoming SAG Awards. Since the Screen Actors Guild is the largest voting body for the Oscars, a win there would effectively end the race.
The Best Actor Battle: Chalamet vs. The Field
While Buckley has clear skies, the Best Actor category is a storm. Timothée Chalamet entered the season with immense momentum for Marty Supreme. His “punk rock” energy and physical transformation made him the favorite at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice.
However, the BAFTA Film Awards just threw a massive wrench in the gears. Robert Aramayo took home the trophy for I Swear, an incredibly sensitive and raw portrayal of a man living with Tourette’s syndrome. Aramayo’s win is significant not just as an upset, but as a victory for disability representation. By winning over Chalamet and veterans like Leonardo DiCaprio, Aramayo has forced Oscar voters to reconsider the “frontrunner” narrative.
Making History: The Rise of Sinners and Black Excellence
One of the most heartening trends of the 2026 season is the critical and commercial success of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. The film, which explores Black identity through a supernatural lens, made history at the BAFTAs. Wunmi Mosaku’s win for Best Supporting Actress was a standout moment of the night.
Seeing Black talent recognized in traditionally white-dominated spaces like the BAFTAs is a vital shift. Historically, Black performers have faced significant hurdles in the UK awards circuit; according to a 2024 diversity study of the film industry, Black actors are often underrepresented in major categories despite high critical acclaim. Wunmi Mosaku and Teyana Taylor (who secured a Golden Globe for One Battle After Another) are dismantling those barriers, proving that stories rooted in the Black experience are universal powerhouses.
2026 Awards Season Leaderboard
| Award Show | Best Actress | Best Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor |
| Golden Globes | Jessie Buckley / Rose Byrne | Wagner Moura / Timothée Chalamet | Teyana Taylor | Stellan Skarsgård |
| Critics’ Choice | Jessie Buckley | Timothée Chalamet | Amy Madigan | Jacob Elordi |
| BAFTA | Jessie Buckley | Robert Aramayo | Wunmi Mosaku | Sean Penn |
| SAG Awards | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| The Oscars | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
The Supporting Categories: A Divided Industry
The supporting races are currently the most chaotic. While Jacob Elordi had a strong showing at the Critics’ Choice for his turn in Frankenstein, the BAFTAs leaned toward the veteran Sean Penn for One Battle After Another. This division suggests that the Supporting Actor Oscar might come down to a “career achievement” vote versus a “breakout star” narrative.
In the Supporting Actress category, it’s a three-way tie in terms of momentum between Teyana Taylor, Amy Madigan, and Wunmi Mosaku. This will likely be the most exciting category to watch during the SAG Awards broadcast.
The Finish Line is in Sight
As we move toward the SAG Awards and finally the Oscars, the 2026 Oscar acting race is a testament to a diverse year in film. We are seeing a balance between “prestige” biopics like Hamnet, gritty indies like I Swear, and culturally impactful genre films like Sinners.
The industry is clearly divided in the best way possible—not by quality, but by a surplus of incredible performances that demand to be seen.
Who are you rooting for in the Best Actor race? Do you think Robert Aramayo can pull off the ultimate Oscar upset, or is Timothée Chalamet still the king of the court? Let us know your predictions in the comments below!
