Happy New Year. As we all slowly return to life after the holidays, the relentless machine of awards season is already in high gear. With the Gothams, NYFCC, LAFCA, and more already in the books, and the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes upon us, the race to the Academy Awards is officially on.
Feeling overwhelmed? Just curious about what’s worth your time? We’ve got you covered. Below, we’ve ranked the major players and fascinating underdogs in order of their likelihood to win (or be nominated for) Best Picture. For each, we’ve broken down their key races, narratives, and—crucially—where you can stream them right now or in the coming weeks. So pour one last glass of bubbly and get ready for the campaign trail.
One Battle After Another (Stream on HBO Max)
It’s almost unfair. Paul Thomas Anderson’s subversive, Trump-era action epic is the critic-sweeping, industry-beloved juggernaut of the season. Think Oppenheimer’s inevitability meets the star-led, adult-oriented spectacles that won Best Picture in the ‘90s. With a narrative about PTA being “due” and Warner Bros.’ potential last hurrah, it feels destined for the top prize.
- Frontrunner For: Best Picture, Best Director (Paul Thomas Anderson), Best Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Best Supporting Actress (Teyana Taylor).
- In Contention: Best Supporting Actor (Benicio del Toro or Sean Penn), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing.
Hamnet (Likely on Peacock by late Jan./early Feb.)
Chloé Zhao’s elegiac, TIFF Audience Award-winning masterpiece is the most plausible dark horse. A profound story of grief and art, anchored by a career-defining performance from Jessie Buckley, it appeals directly to the Academy’s heart. Remember: the last TIFF audience winner from Zhao was Nomadland.
- Frontrunner For: Best Actress (Jessie Buckley).
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Director (Chloé Zhao), Best Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Paul Mescal), Score, Costumes, Production Design.
Sentimental Value (VOD only for now)
Joachim Trier’s exquisite Cannes Grand Prix winner represents the Academy’s growing love for sophisticated European cinema. An actor’s paradise, its subtle power could rally the largest voting branch. It’s the quintessential “writer’s and actor’s film” with a heartbreaking core.
- Frontrunner For: Best International Film, Best Original Screenplay.
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress (Renate Reinsve), Supporting Actor (Stellan Skarsgård), Supporting Actress (Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Elle Fanning).
Marty Supreme (Likely on HBO Max by April)
Don’t sleep on this feel-good Cinderella story. Timothée Chalamet’s indie ping-pong charmer is a box office winner with irrepressible energy. While a Best Picture win is a long shot, its narrative could propel Chalamet to his first Oscar in a major upset.
- Frontrunner For: Best Actor (Timothée Chalamet—potential upset).
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Director (Josh Safdie—bubble), Original Screenplay, Editing, Casting, Score.
Sinners (Stream on HBO Max)
Ryan Coogler’s Southern Gothic horror is a popular, searing examination of race and violence. Yet, the Academy’s historic aversion to horror—especially from a bold, Black perspective—likely caps its ceiling. Expect it to dominate below-the-line categories as a consolation.
- Frontrunner For: Best Cinematography, Best Score, Best Casting.
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Director (Ryan Coogler), Best Actor (Michael B. Jordan), Original Screenplay, Editing.
Frankenstein (Stream on Netflix)
Guillermo del Toro’s tragic, sumptuous drama is not a horror movie; it’s a del Toro movie, and the Academy loves him. A Best Picture nod is assured, but its victory path is narrow. Where it will triumph is in crafting a breathtaking, gothic world.
- Frontrunner For: Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling.
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor (Jacob Elordi—bubble), Adapted Screenplay.
It Was Just an Accident (VOD only for now)
Jafar Panahi’s brave, Palme d’Or-winning thriller, made clandestinely in Tehran, is this year’s potent international contender. Its harrowing real-world story guarantees a nomination, but its direct competition with Sentimental Value may limit its ascent.
- Frontrunner For: Best International Film (strong competitor).
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Director (Jafar Panahi), Original Screenplay.
Train Dreams (Stream on Netflix)
Clint Bentley’s quiet, introspective ode to America’s working class is a lock for a nomination thanks to its breathtaking visuals and soulful performance by Joel Edgerton. It’s this year’s beautiful, patient film that everyone respects.
- Frontrunner For: Best Cinematography.
- In Contention: Best Picture, Best Actor (Joel Edgerton—bubble), Adapted Screenplay.
Avatar: Fire and Ash (Likely on Disney+ in April/May)
Snubbed by critics? Yes. Ignored by the Academy? Unlikely. James Cameron’s financial invincibility and sheer production scale command respect from the producer-heavy branch. It will get in based on awe alone, if not affection.
- Frontrunner For: Best Visual Effects.
- In Contention: Best Picture (bubble), Best Sound.
Bugonia (Stream on MUBI)
Mean, weird, and brilliantly Lanthimosian, this Emma Stone vehicle is poised to snag the 10th slot. The Academy has embraced this duo before (The Favourite, Poor Things), and Stone looks likely to secure her fifth nomination before 40.
- Frontrunner For: Best Actress (Emma Stone—bubble).
- In Contention: Best Picture (bubble), Best Adapted Screenplay.
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (Streams on HBO Max Jan. 30)
Rose Byrne gives the performance of the year as a spiraling mother in Mary Bronstein’s blistering film. The critics’ darling is almost too sharp for the broader Academy, making her a frontrunner who could be upset on Oscar night.
- Frontrunner For: Best Actress (Rose Byrne).
Weapons (Stream on HBO Max)
This horror-mystery’s secret weapon is a terrifying, unrecognizable Amy Madigan. Her limited but volcanic screen time is the definition of a “scene-stealing supporting nomination.”
- Frontrunner For: Best Supporting Actress (Amy Madigan).
KPop Demon Hunters (Stream on Netflix)
This won’t be up for Best Picture, but it will be the animated film to beat. A vibrant, genre-blending triumph with a certified banger of a song.
- Frontrunner For: Best Animated Feature, Best Original Song (“Golden”).
No Other Choice (Streaming TBD)
Park Chan-wook’s Hitchcockian Korean thriller about corporate desperation is too much of a genre piece for the main categories but is a powerhouse in the international race.
- Frontrunner For: Best International Film (strong competitor).
Wicked: For Good (Likely on Peacock in March)
Its quality is “mid,” but its box office isn’t. It could sneak into Best Picture based on sheer popularity, but will have to settle for technical nods and Ariana Grande’s locked Supporting Actress nomination.
The Smashing Machine (Streams on HBO Max Jan. 23)
Benny Safdie’s introspective MMA drama has been overshadowed by his brother’s hit. Dwayne Johnson’ transformative performance is good, but likely not enough for a nomination in a stacked year. Expect a Makeup nod.
The Testament of Ann Lee (Stream on Apple TV+)
Amanda Seyfried is poignant in this odd, somber historical drama about the Shakers, but the film’s peculiar tone makes it a divisive, unlikely player.
Jay Kelly (Stream on Netflix)
Noah Baumbach + George Clooney playing a version of himself? On paper, it’s an Oscar bait home run. In practice, it’s a whiff.
After the Hunt (Stream on Prime Video)
Julia Roberts and Luca Guadagnino’s anti-cancel culture thriller feels like a less masterful retread of Tár. In this competitive year, that’s not enough.
